Good morning, everyone.
Thank you for being here today and for joining us at AMCHAM T&T’s Annual Economic Outlook Forum, our first major business event of the year. We are always excited to kick off the year with this event, as it sets the tone for the conversations and collaborations we will be having throughout the next 12 months.
As is tradition, we are pleased to have our partners at EY Caribbean to present the results of our Economic Pulse survey which was conducted with our membership. We greatly appreciate the participation of our members, as today’s findings reflect a collective effort to understand and address both the challenges and opportunities in our economy through greater collaboration.
But before we dive into the survey results, I’d like to take a moment to reflect on the current state of our economy. I start with a sobering message we got from one of our members last week – well former member:
“I regret to inform you that I will not be renewing my AMCHAM membership. Please understand that this decision is not a reflection on the organization; I am extremely grateful for my experiences as a member.
My decision to leave is based solely on my concerns for the future of my business in Trinidad. I have observed that many of my fellow entrepreneurs and myself are struggling in an environment that seems to lack opportunity for smaller players. In contrast, my business endeavors outside of Trinidad have yielded significantly better results with less effort, and I feel it is essential to focus my energy where I see the greatest potential for success.”
This note appears to reflect the general sentiment. In a short while, when Indar presents the results of the survey, you will see the massive turnaround in sentiment on the Economic Outlook. The vast majority of respondents are not confident about the economy in 2025. In fact, the numbers show an almost 180-degree turnaround in that regard from last year to this year. A significant proportion of those who are not confident, cited the lack of a clear development plan as one of the reasons for their concern.
It is clear therefore, especially as we enter an election year, that:
- Those aspiring to political office have to start talking about policy, with specifics, to identify how they propose to address the myriad of problems facing T&T.
- Our leaders need to find some common ground on key strategies that can lead to economic growth
- The business community needs to be more closely engaged as these plans are not only developed but also rolled out.
However, while this situation is concerning, I believe it’s also a moment for us to recalibrate – which, fittingly, is the theme of this year’s forum. Let me explain.
Despite the challenges we face, there are some positive indicators to reflect on from the end of 2024:
● The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 2.4% growth for our economy in 2025.
● Our GDP is expected to reach USD $29.24 billion by year end.
● Moody’s has affirmed Trinidad and Tobago’s Ba2 rating with a stable outlook.
● The operationalization of the Trinidad and Tobago Revenue Authority (TTRA) in 2025 is seen as a significant step forward.
● The Heritage and Stabilization Fund (HSF) and our cash reserves continue to provide a buffer against potential fiscal risks.
In summary, despite the challenges we face, Trinidad and Tobago's economic prospects for 2025 are not calamitous. In fact, we still have some limited fiscal space to recalibrate. The longer we take to change course however, the less policy options we have.
Overshadowing any prospects of economic growth though, is crime. If we are unable to address the crime situation it could dampen the positive projections we are seeing. Indar will say even more about this as he goes through the survey results.
Relations with the new US Administration
It’s no secret that our quickest path to economic recovery and growth lies with accessing cross border Venezuelan gas.
Our largest trading partner, our largest source destination for tourists and a key source of innovation and investment.
Therefore, the relationship with the US will always be a priority. As such we have to ensure that we are engaging the new Administration on multiple fronts, emphasizing our mutual interests and avoiding the diplomatic pitfalls that could hamper an otherwise excellent and strong relationship.
AMCHAM T&T will continue working with the Government, the US Embassy, our partners at the US Chamber of Commerce, and through the Association of American Chambers of Commerce of Latin America and the Caribbean to advance our shared goals.
Understanding the Administration’s priorities, we should accelerate our nearshoring strategy, focusing on those business segments that US companies and foreign companies with significant investment in the US will find beneficial to enhancing their operations stateside. It may seem daunting but with a little thought and deliberate, strategic effort, it can be done.
AI & the Digital Economy
I want to turn our attention now to the Digital Economy, a sector that holds immense potential for both economic and social growth. Today, we have a timely opportunity to diversify our economy and invest in our country’s future through digital technologies.
There has already been significant progress in advancing the digital economy, with the launch of the IDB’s Tech Lab standing as the most recent example of successful digital investment in our country. However, we must also address the economic implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which is transforming global business environments at a rapid pace.
One common concern about AI is its potential to displace jobs. We understand the fear but instead of seeing AI as a job eliminator, why not view it as an opportunity to create new roles and entire industries?
As AI continues to evolve, the demand for talent in tech-related fields will increase sharply. Trinidad and Tobago can capitalize on this by investing in education and training programs that equip our youths and our workforce with the skills needed to thrive in an AI-driven economy. This will help diversify our job market and build a more resilient economy.
By integrating AI into business operations, local companies will be enhancing their export potential, attracting international partnerships, and fostering an innovative environment that encourages foreign investment. This could position Trinidad and Tobago as a regional leader in the digital economy.
To fully unlock AI’s economic potential, however, we must ensure that the ecosystem is operationalized. Therefore, we need greater collaboration between government, businesses, academia, and civil society to create policies that support AI innovation. Meanwhile, investment in digital infrastructure, entrepreneurship, and research & development will also be crucial to building a thriving AI ecosystem. I believe we already have the capacity to get this done. We don’t want to be left behind. So, let’s get to work!
The recent announcements by Deep Seek and immediate pivots by Meta and other companies as a result, may provide more opportunities to smaller markets such as ours. This means we have to become even more nimble and better pull together the good work already being done by the private sector, the TTIFC, the Ministry of Digital Transformation’s D-Hub, CARIRI and IDB as well as the universities.
Crime & Foreign Exchange
When asked what the Government should focus on that will positively impact the way that you do business? The two stand out responses were Crime prevention & reduction and address foreign exchange inaccessibility. These are two significant issues we all face.
Last year, I focussed significantly on crime in this space. As we said when it was announced, we support the additional focus the TTPS is placing on crime suppression and reduction through the State of Emergency. We hope for some significant successes that have a long-term impact. We also look forward to working with the Government and TTPS on longer-term solutions. For this we needed a clearer plan and, I’d like to repeat, with clear targets, reporting and accountability when performance is not meeting expectations.
On the issue of ForEx, it is clear that we need to adjust our approaches and find more sustainable solutions. I am not going to be prescriptive in that regard, but I will say this is not just an allocation issue.
Like me I am sure you all are looking forward to hearing a little bit more about this from Indar and the panel.
Conclusion
It is not my intention to take up too much of your time. While there are many other important issues I could address, I’m confident our expert speakers will provide deeper insights during the panel discussion.
As I close, I hope we continue finding innovative ways to work together, to collaborate on exciting and impactful projects. While the future is uncertain, I firmly believe that as long as we don’t let any challenge or crisis derail our goals - and take the time to pivot and stay focused - we can overcome any obstacle and achieve everything we set out to accomplish.
Thank you, and may God continue to bless you all and our beloved nation.
END.